The Evolving Role of BRICS Plus and Argentina's Pivot

February 22, 2024

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As the geopolitical terrain of 2024 unfolds, Argentina's redirection under President Javier Milei epitomizes the fluidity of international alliances. The nation's decision to diverge from the BRICS Plus trajectory is a microcosm for the shifting winds of the current world order. BRICS, embodying the collective clout of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded its global influence by welcoming nations including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These additions diversify the consortium's geopolitical and economic vantage points, furthering a multipolar world vision.

 

The group's advocacy for development alternatives aligns with the specific needs of developing nations, proposing frameworks that contrast with Western-led models. As a counterpoint to established power circles such as the G7, BRICS Plus represents a new collective voice in the international order.

 

The significance of Argentina's choice to renege on joining BRICS Plus extends beyond its borders, signaling potential shifts in global paradigms and possibly recalibrating regional power dynamics and foreign policy directions. Economically, Argentina's pivot may reshape its trade and investment relationships, particularly with BRICS Plus nations like China and Brazil. Politically, this move illustrates the intricate dance between national interests and global alliances, underscoring the delicate equilibrium between domestic imperatives and international strategies.

 

BRICS Plus' growth is instrumental in championing a multipolar order, disrupting conventional power structures, and fostering equitable global governance. Conversely, Argentina's recalibration underlines the intricate challenges faced by nations in aligning with evolving global blocs, reflecting the complex tapestry of international politics.

 

The Domestic and International Interplay in Argentina's Strategic Recalibration
Argentina's decision to pivot away from BRICS Plus is rooted in domestic politics and the influence of Western powers. Internally, Argentina's political landscape is characterized by deep divisions and conflicts among various political factions and interest groups. The two major political coalitions in Argentina, Union for the Homeland (Unión por la Patria, or UP) and Together for Change (Juntos por el Cambio, or JxC) have differing visions for the country's development and foreign policy. The UP is largely subsumed into the Justicialist Party (Partido Justicialista, or PJ), which advocates for greater state intervention and social welfare, and tends to favor closer ties with developing countries. In contrast, the Republican Proposal (Propuesta Republicana, or PRO), a main party within the JxC, advocates free market theories and economic reforms, aligning more closely with Western nations.

 

Mauricio Macri's victory in the 2015 presidential elections, representing the PRO, marked a significant shift in Argentina's politics and foreign policy direction. Macri implemented a series of economic and political reforms aimed at addressing legacy issues and revitalizing Argentina's economy and international standing. He lifted currency controls and export taxes, reduced subsidies and public spending, and reached agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and creditors to resolve long-standing debt disputes, reopening Argentina's market and investment environment.

 

Macri's tenure also saw a notable shift in Argentina's foreign policy. Strengthening ties with Western nations, particularly the United States and the European Union, Macri sought greater political and economic support and cooperation from Western blocs.

 

However, Macri's reforms and foreign policy direction faced opposition and criticism. The economic policies led to increased inflation, poverty, and unemployment, sparking social discontent and protests. His foreign policy was scrutinized by different political factions and interest groups within Argentina. Critics argued that his approach catered to Western interests at the expense of Argentina's sovereignty and dignity, neglecting cooperation with developing countries and damaging Argentina's diversified foreign strategy.

 

Argentina's pivot away from BRICS Plus under President Javier Milei represents a "double down" on conservative principles in response to global changes. This move, contrasting with former President Alberto Fernandez's approach, raises questions about the cohesion of emerging global blocs. Simultaneously, the decision not to join BRICS Plus was seen as a missed opportunity for Argentina to gain international influence and development opportunities, as well as forsaking a valuable platform for collaboration with emerging economies. The Milei administration's decision not to join BRICS Plus was framed as a divergence from the group's ideals and goals, preferring collaboration with Western nations.

 

Milei's administration, facing economic challenges like high inflation, has implemented radical measures, including a significant peso devaluation. Argentina's foreign policy shift and economic strategy, aligning more closely with the United States, reflect Milei's attempt to stabilize the economy by leveraging the US dollar. This pivot is influenced by the United States' role in the IMF.

 

BRICS Plus' Growing Influence and Global Dynamics
As Argentina revaluates its association with BRICS Plus, the role of BRICS Plus in the grander scheme of global politics, particularly considering the China-US strategic competition, becomes increasingly salient. BRICS Plus is carving out a substantial niche in the global economy, offering an alternative paradigm to the US-dominated economic model. Its political stance champions a multipolar world, and while not a military bloc, the military prowess of its members adds a complex layer to global security narratives.

 

BRICS Plus' assertive presence in global markets, from commodities to technology, and its institutional ventures like the New Development Bank (NDB), affirms its commitment to inclusive economic progression. The consortium's unified voice on pressing global issues offers a distinct counterbalance to Western perspectives, fortifying its collective diplomatic clout.

 

The strategic role of BRICS Plus and the current global dynamics represent a significant shift from the post-Cold War unipolarity to an increasingly multipolar world. The rise of BRICS Plus can be seen as an embodiment of the growing influence of emerging economies in global power dynamics.

 

Economic Dynamics
BRICS Plus nations, with their significant share of the world's population and GDP, have become central to the global economy. Together, they account for 45% of the world population and around 33% of the global GDP.  China and India, with their massive growth trajectories, are forecast to be the world's largest and third-largest economies by 2030.  This economic heft gives BRICS Plus considerable influence over global economic trends, commodity markets, and supply chains.

 

The New Development Bank established by BRICS Plus is a testament to its commitment to shaping the global financial architecture. The Bank aims to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS Plus and other emerging economies. By providing alternatives to the World Bank and IMF, where BRICS Plus nations have long felt underrepresented, the bloc is challenging the traditional Western-dominated financial institutions and norms.

 

Moreover, BRICS Plus countries are increasingly trading in local currencies, reducing reliance on the US dollar and the Euro, which could, in the long run, lessen the dollar's status as the global reserve currency. The creation of the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) also exemplifies their intent to shield themselves from global liquidity pressures and to build a financial safety net independent of Western influence.

 

Political Influence
Politically, BRICS Plus has been advocating for a more representative and equitable global governance system. The bloc advocates for reform in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to grant greater representation to emerging powers, which would realign the UN's power structure to more accurately reflect contemporary global realities.

 

The BRICS Plus approach to global diplomacy is often characterized by a non-interventionist stance, respect for sovereign decision-making, and a call for dialogue over military interventions, which contrasts with the more interventionist policies of some Western powers. This philosophy resonates with many countries, particularly in the Global South, which are wary of foreign interference in their internal affairs.

 

Security and Strategic Dimensions
While BRICS Plus is not a military alliance, its members have substantial individual military capabilities and are involved in various security alliances. China and Russia, both permanent members of the UNSC, wield significant influence in security matters, offering a counterbalance to the positions of the United States and its allies. India, with its strategic location and substantial military capacity, is a key player in South Asian security dynamics. Their combined strategic weight enables BRICS Plus to influence regional security outcomes and the global balance.

 

BRICS Plus countries also conduct joint military exercises, enhancing interoperability and demonstrating their capability to collaborate on security issues. Regular meetings between BRICS Plus defense ministers and joint Peace Mission exercises contribute to their security cooperation.

 

Limitations and Internal Dynamics
However, the strategic role of BRICS Plus is not without limitations. Internal disparities—economic, political, and strategic—exist among the BRICS Plus nations, which can sometimes lead to a lack of coherent strategy and action. The inherent diversity of BRICS Plus nations ensures that some differences in opinion will always exist among the bloc members. Such divergences may impede the bloc's ability to present a unified stance on global issues.

 

Moreover, the economic interdependence of BRICS Plus nations with the West, particularly in terms of trade and investment flows, adds a layer of complexity to their strategic role. China, for example, is a crucial trading partner with the US and EU, yet also seen as a competitor by these nations. These interdependencies create a nuanced web of relationships where confrontation and collaboration blend in a messy spiral.

 

The Future of BRICS Plus in Global Power Dynamics
Despite challenges, the strategic role of BRICS Plus will continue to evolve. The group is well-positioned to capitalize on its members' growth trajectories, which could help them exert substantial influence on global economic and political systems. Their continued push for reforms in global governance structures, pursuit of a more equitable international financial system, and their expanding influence in global policy discourse will be significant factors in global power dynamics.

 

The strategic role of BRICS Plus must be viewed through the lens of an evolving global order marked by a diffusion of power. While the group faces internal challenges and its collective action is sometimes constrained by the differing national interests of its members, BRICS Plus indisputably contributes to the reshaping of international relations. Through economic collaboration, political discourse, and security considerations, BRICS Plus nations are steadily crafting a world order that is less centralized, more diverse, and more reflective of the changing global economic and political landscape. The continued rise of BRICS Plus has the potential to redefine power dynamics in a world that is increasingly interconnected and craving multipolarity.

 

The year 2024 is a watershed in international relations, with BRICS Plus' evolution and Argentina's strategic realignment serving as indicators of the shifting tides in global power dynamics. As nations like Argentina navigate these changes, the actions of BRICS Plus will be significant in shaping the emerging multipolar world order. The consortium's promotion of diverse economic pathways, alternative political discourse, and its potential to influence the global governance framework emphasize the growing significance of multipolarity in shaping the future of international cooperation and stability.

 

 

1. Gregory Zerzan, "Ignoring BRICS Expansion Threatens America's Economic Security," Newsweek, January 12, 2024, https://www.newsweek.com/ignoring-brics-expansion-threatens-americas-economic-security-opinion-1859634.

2. "World Insights: Global South Treads Own Path to Weather Transforming Global Order," Xinhua, January 7, 2024, https://english.news.cn/20240107/3064508376ef41a8848408e4ed7afe8d/c.html.
3. BRICS, XV BRICS Summit Johannesburg II Declaration, August 23, 2023, https://brics2023.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Jhb-II-Declaration-24-August-2023-1.pdf.

 

 

Please note: The above contents only represent the views of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.

 

This article is from the January issue of TI Observer (TIO), which examines the dynamics of the BRICS expansion in a global context. If you are interested in knowing more about the January issue, please click here:

http://www.taiheinstitute.org/Content/2024/01-31/1604465221.html

 

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