Simulacra Machine in Overdrive: Europe in Flux

July 04, 2024

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The European Union (EU) and Europe more broadly are doubtless in a moment of transitional flux. The longstanding and bloody conflict in Ukraine exemplifies a political set-up that has, in fact, failed to achieve a meaningful and stable post-Soviet settlement. The 30 years of Western dominion since the dissolution of the Soviet Union – the unipolar moment dominated by the US and its collective Western allies – did not deliver "perpetual peace." Rather, as we can see today, the accumulated result of the last three decades of practice has seen the EU reach, if not a precipice, a fork in the road.

The Simulacra Machine and Autoimmunity

Against this backdrop, the EU political leadership seems to be lost, or somewhat oddly hellbent, on heading down the primrose path. Rather than confront the realities of policy failure and acknowledge the need for a radical rethink of priorities and approaches, the political elites that have dominated European affairs in recent decades – the bureaucrats of the European Commission headquartered in Brussels and the political leaders of France and Germany in particular – have doubled down. Cocooned in an echo chamber, the world they describe is more akin to the work of a Simulacra Machine. The results of this Machine are, as Jean Baudrillard suggested in his prescient work Simulacra and Simulation, "models of a real without origin or reality: a hyperreal… It is no longer a question of imitation, nor duplication, nor even parody. It is a question of substituting the signs of the real for the real." Baudrillard described the progressive distance between the simulation and the "sacramental order" – a reality that defies the fiction of imagination.

The simulations are what are termed "narratives" in today's parlance. Visually, these narratives are buttressed by spectacles, events, and actions designed to capture a moment, harnessing the affective predilections of those intoxicated by the universalist project of Western liberalism and trying to recover a dissipating belief in the civilizational virtuosity of the collective West. As Francis Fukuyama's "End of History" moment burns, the Western elites, like Nero, continue to fiddle in their hyperreal world. Their obsessions seem to focus not only on narrative control but also on narrative victory, as if the war was being fought in the echo chamber of their Simulacra Machine. Yet, the daily and repeated rhetorical flourishes and slogans that feed the Simulacra Machine not only detach from the "sacramental order," but also contribute to decisions and actions that lead to outcomes in the real world that are destructive, even self-destructive. The Simulacra Machine is at once a maker of dreams and nightmares and a factory of autoimmune responses that destroy the world it seeks to protect, in the name of protection.

Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, promised that the Russian economy would be turned into tatters. Yet, it wasn't.

The Russian ruble was not turned into rubble, as promised by US President Joe Biden.

Russia was more than a "gas station masquerading as a nation," which was how the late US Senator John McCain described it in the lead-up to the crisis in eastern Ukraine that began in April 2014. The Russian economy is stronger today than it has been any time in the last decade, growing at rates higher than any G7 nation.

"For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power," railed US President Joe Biden in March 2022, in a not-very-oblique call for regime change in Moscow. Nevertheless, Russia's President Vladimir Putin was re-elected with a popular vote of over 80% in May 2024.

Russia was accused of mounting a "full-scale" and "unprovoked" invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Yet, serious analysts and observers, including the US' own intelligence and diplomatic personnel dating back to George Kennan and Henry Kissinger, all knew that NATO's expansion eastward was provocative and would lead to war. Putin warned of this back in 2007 in Munich, but Russia's concerns were dismissed. The sugar high of unipolarity necessitated this. As for the idea that Russia mounted a "full-scale invasion," this is palpably laughable. Any military analyst worth their salt knew that 200,000 men were well short of what a "full-scale invasion" would require.

Russia is running out of ammunition and men, claimed assorted Western sources throughout 2022 and 2023. By 2024, the realization that the reverse was the case began to seep out via the mainstream Western media. Glitches in the Simulacra simply could not be plastered over forever.

The vaunted Ukraine offensive of mid-2023 – prepared and resourced by NATO – was meant to deliver the final blow to Russia. An assortment of Western weapons was meant to overwhelm a Russian army that was, by comparison, fighting with World War II peashooters. Western equipment superiority was to prove decisive, as the Simulacra envisaged. Wrong. If the war in Ukraine is a system-on-system contest, it is clear that the Simulacra is being bested by the "sacramental order." Western doctrine has failed to catapult the Ukrainian proxy military to victory, despite having been trained and resourced since 2014 to become one of Europe's largest land armies. Western supply chains have failed to deliver repair and replacement capabilities to match those of Russia.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone economies began to confront the realities of deindustrialization in the face of rising energy costs. Energy costs spiked because of Western decisions to impose sanctions on Russian oil and gas. The Simulacra is that Russia chose to stop the oil and gas. The reality is that the Eurozone as a whole is close to recession. Some of its major economies have entered recessions. The powerhouse of the Eurozone – Germany – is a shadow of its former self, wracked by industrial hollowing out as energy uncompetitiveness bites and industries shutter for good, or pick up and move across the Atlantic. 

These observations aren't expressed as moral opprobrium, nor are they endorsements of the actions of either the European elites or Russia. They are just observations of an unfolding reality in which the collective West has sought to manufacture and live in a Simulacra with a diminishing relationship and resemblance to the "sacramental order."

The Revenge of the Sacramental Order

But the "sacramental order" can't be ignored forever.

The EU parliamentary elections were held in early June 2024. The results are suggestive of a populace that is tired not only of the Simulacra but also of the consequences of an elite privileging Simulacra production over what is being witnessed and experienced in the daily lives, and deaths, of people across Europe.
Candidates opposed to the elite obsessions with persisting with the war in Ukraine – from both the so-called "radical right" and the left – succeeded in ways that were inconceivable a few years ago. In France, the National Rally garnered over 30% of the vote, consolidating its position as a leading nationalist party in the European Parliament. In response, President Emmanuel Macron has called for a snap election of the National Assembly. Similarly, the Brothers of Italy party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni raked in over 25% of the vote in Italy. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party did particularly well in the country's east, while the conservative Christian Democrats scored resounding victories over Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats and his coalition partners, The Greens, elsewhere across the country.

These gains may not be sufficient to block the path to a second-term presidency for Ursula von der Leyen, but they show a growing disquiet in the body politic about the direction and priorities of European elites.

Other fractures are appearing too, as the disparate interests of the various member states become increasingly evident. Under a cloud of economic recession, national governments are confronting daunting questions of policy directions that can alleviate short term pains and lay the groundwork for revitalization over the medium to long term. The relationship between the Eurozone economies and China looms large as a result. While some European states are echoing the increasingly shrill and hostile voices directed at China from Washington, others have a lot more at stake economically. Disentangling from China could be economically disastrous, particularly for economies that have long benefited from tight interconnections with China, such as Germany.

The recent decision by the European Commission to impose tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) exemplifies the fracturing interests at play across the EU. German industry can ill afford a trade war with China, given that it experiences a manufacturing trade surplus with China. The French care less, and so they have expressed stronger support for more aggressive protectionist measures. Meanwhile, Hungary and Spain are showing that alternative pathways are possible. Hungary has welcomed Chinese EV investments, with BYD set to begin production from its new factory in Szeged in three years. The plant aims to ramp up annual production to 200,000 cars over time. Chery has recently joined with a Spanish company in a joint venture to refurbish an abandoned Nissan plant in Barcelona. The Italian government has reached out to BYD to sound out their interest in setting up a plant in Italy. Outside the EU, Serbia is welcoming Chinese industrial investment. As the EU seems to be plunging itself down the fast track to warfare, Serbia takes delivery of high-speed trains from China.

The EU and some member states are also agitated about the competition from Chinese-manufactured solar photovoltaics (PVs). While European PV production capacity is only capable of meeting about 3% of its total demand, voices are calling for greater protectionism to prohibit Chinese imports from gaining further market share. As these debates play out, the EU's decarbonization ambitions are fraying and run the risk of being left in tatters. Decarbonization can best take place with the rapid deployment of the least costly technical solutions. Once deployed, low-cost renewable systems deliver greater energy sovereignty and access to lower marginal costs. Reindustrialization can then take place. Europe's lack of energy sovereignty and exposure to relatively high costs are difficult to resolve without at least some significant contribution from Chinese renewable technologies. Serbia, incidentally, is simply getting on with its renewable energy strategies with the help of Chinese technology partners.

The Future Lasts a Long Time

Centrifugal forces across Europe are intensifying as divergent national interests become more pronounced. The results of the recent EU parliamentary elections could create conditions less conducive to "whole-EU" policies developed by the technocrats in Brussels, as local populations demand nationally focused policies.

The EU as a project has confronted the limits imposed by ideological hubris and tepid political leadership in the face of pressure from across the Atlantic. The seeds of the EU's slide can be traced back to the Munich Security Conference in 2007 when Putin made clear of Russia's concerns about NATO's eastward expansion. Despite meek protests from former German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the time, the Americans steamrolled their agenda. The deals reached at Minsk were, as we now know, never to be implemented as the collective West was only interested in buying time. Merkel and former French President Francois Hollande have both confirmed this.

Deindustrialization is real and palpable. Tariffs on EVs are unlikely to be meaningful, other than adding costs to households and enterprises already suffering under the weight of inflation. I say it is not meaningful because the problems for European industry are a whole-of-ecosystem problem involving suboptimal supply chains and the baked-in effects of hollowing out. High energy costs are hard to overcome in the short term without resolving the political issues with Russia and engaging with low-cost, high-volume Chinese-made renewable technologies.

Europe is in flux. Persisting with the Simulacra will likely lead to the same outcomes seen so far. The "sacramental order" is unforgiving. While voters have expressed displeasure, will there be any meaningful change in elite policy direction? The signs suggest that the principal voices of EU elites in Brussels, Paris, and Berlin – buttressed by those emanating from London – will remain steadfast and continue with their current strategies. What hasn't worked to date has simply failed because it hasn't been implemented at "full throttle." Meanwhile, the "sacramental order" of economic contraction and declining living standards will work across the body politic, one community at a time, one nation at a time. Some are seeking alternative pathways by turning toward the East.

Europe as a whole, and its individual member states, are now at a fork in the road. Will Europe recede to be an appendage of the transatlantic American order, or will it – in whole or in part – find ways to emerge from the maelstrom as a bulwark of a growing Eurasian continent?

 

 

Please note: The above contents only represent the views of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.

 

This article is from the June issue of TI Observer (TIO), which explores China-Europe relations during a time of international upheaval, focusing on issues like green development, regional conflicts, and trade barriers as well as the opportunities and challenges ahead. If you are interested in knowing more about the June issue, please click here:

http://en.taiheinstitute.org/UpLoadFile/files/2024/6/28/152632490d3194c2-0.pdf

 

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