About the author
Evan Hill
TI Youth Observer
Streisand Effect
The US TikTok ban saga has been a rollercoaster ride.
The internet seemed to be heading in a more segregated direction. The digital world was increasingly becoming a sovereign (in this instance, sovereign refers to nationally segregated digital bubbles) construct. A bipartisan piece of US legislation mandated that TikTok, a popular social media platform stemming from a Chinese entity, ByteDance, would have to sell or be blocked in the US.
Then, in a textbook example of the Streisand effect, in a single day, millions of US citizens downloaded the Chinese app Xiaohongshu, known in the US as RedNote, and the app became the most downloaded app in the US.1 Chaos ensued.
At present, the US Supreme Court has upheld the resolution to ban TikTok.2Interestingly, outgoing President Joe Biden chose not to enforce the legislation for his last day in office, which created more legal questions than answers.3 As of this article, TikTok is currently online after a brief shutdown period and will likely remain online for at least the next few years. The exact long-term future of TikTok remains uncertain as public opinion goes through radical shifts and a new administration assumes primacy.
The future of US policy regarding technological sovereignty remains uncertain. Banning TikTok is presently an unpopular move with the US public, though this attitude could easily shift. What happens in 2025 and beyond with TikTok, as well as general US approaches to technological sovereignty, remains to be seen, but the situation is highly likely to intensify.
RedNote
No one predicted the size and scale of the RedNote migration, including RedNote, which has begun recruiting English-speaking employees in bulk as it struggles to handle the influx of TikTok refugees. The generally assumed trajectory for TikTok users was toward platforms like X, Threads, and Instagram, but in a move that shocked everyone, the US public opted to join another Chinese app en masse.
The largest lesson here is that technological separation is utterly despised by the US public, and this discontent can cause US consumers to rebel en masse. These sentiments may mirror US opinions on net neutrality, which was and is still overwhelmingly supported by the US public, but the scale of the Streisand effect that caused people to sign up for a fully "Chinese app" (TikTok was a totally separate app and social ecosystem from its Chinese counterpart, Douyin, while RedNote groups users of all nations in the same social ecosystem) caught everyone off guard. Ironically, the US attempt to achieve technological sovereignty pushed users in the exact opposite direction.
The outcome of this experiment is uncertain. Chinese and US netizens have never interacted online at such scale before this. China seems relatively open to the prospect of US residents on RedNote, with various Chinese news outlets and government representatives commenting positively on the phenomenon.4 The US seems less enthusiastic, with key officials raising the possibility of banning RedNote. It is worth noting that these sentiments could shift very quickly. This is new ground, and no one is exactly sure how the massive influx of US citizens onto RedNote will work out in the medium and long term.
The Big Picture
Though it can be tempting to get drawn into the drama and theatrics of the TikTok ban, the truth is this is not over. The US Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which bans TikTok, has gone into effect.5 Though Biden chose not to enforce the ban on his final day, and Trump seems similarly eager to not enforce a TikTok ban (a president not enforcing a bill such as this is a contradictory and new concept in US law), the reality is that this item exists and is a crystal-clear precedent for blocking non-US platforms for national security reasons.
Whether or not this precedent can be implemented is a complicated question. The ruling exists and can be enforced legally in the US. It is important to note that US public opinion is fickle, and there may be a juncture where a larger piece of the US population supports this, but the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act will almost certainly never be popular. Time also works against this act, as it will be harder to wean citizens who become active users on foreign apps off them for extended periods, but faced with mass migration to RedNote, US advocates of technological sovereignty don't really have a choice but to wait and reorganize.
This is not over, and this saga will not end with TikTok. Though the current US president seems superficially interested in keeping TikTok active in the US for the near future, the exact shape of his plans for the platform and technological sovereignty in general remains unclear. There is talk and tweets of proposed deal structures, but nothing is officially on paper yet, and it will likely take all sides some time to realign their positions as new information and sources of leverage reset the negotiation conditions.
It is worth noting that while presently the US seems to be focusing on social media apps, the scope, language, and legal implications of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act could enable a US crackdown on other items, including non-US origin video editing apps, translation software, mobile games, and other common digital applications. Whether or not this happens remains to be seen.
The key takeaway here is that this issue will go dormant for a while, but it is far from over, and will likely be back at a much grander scale in a few years. The US government as a whole is not excited about having users on Chinese-origin platforms. New stakes and weights have been added to the scales, but expect to see more about this issue in the coming years.
Who Wins?
The framing of this issue has been interesting. What was expected to be a binary win-loss situation for TikTok has become complicated as the US public fundamentally rejected the ruling and lashed out by downloading RedNote. It can be easy to chalk this up as a "win" for netizens and TikTok, but all parties involved face a complicated future.
If the US sought to create a domestic technologically sovereign bubble, they failed spectacularly. This does not mean technological sovereignty is off the table forever (public opinion is fickle and certain interest groups have strong reason to lobby for this), but it will be some time before this issue becomes palatable again. The best short-term move for the US at present seems to be to let this happen for the next few months and evaluate what to do at a less polarizing junction. This is not the best option (assuming the US is deadset on achieving technological sovereignty) - a growing percentage of US users will indefinitely move long-term to foreign apps if foreign apps are available, but the issue is so charged at present that any hard clampdowns will just exacerbate the Streisand effect migration.
TikTok is back online, but the future of the platform is uncertain. In addition, the app now must compete with RedNote for users, though how this competition will shape out is difficult to know exactly. TikTok has made several accommodations to the US over the past few years, including relocation of servers, setting up US offices, and separating TikTok from the Chinese version of the app, Douyin. It is worth noting that RedNote has made none of the compromises TikTok has, largely because the app had an extremely small non-Chinese user base up until a few days ago, and was simply viewed as unimportant. Parties favoring technological sovereignty are much more likely to prefer "allowing in" TikTok rather than starting over with negotiations with RedNote, who may not even be interested in playing ball with US legislators as TikTok has.
RedNote is enjoying the new influx of users and free publicity as the app gets downloaded all over the world. While the influx of global netizens presently seems to be getting on well enough with Chinese users and vice versa, this could change very quickly. The flow of TikTok refugees is likely to slow tremendously, especially since TikTok is back up in the US, but a portion of the new user base will stay and find a community within the app. Whether or not RedNote sees an eventual ban in the US is another story - the issue is presently unpalatable to the public, and most US lawmakers were at best peripherally aware of the app up until a few days ago.
Miscalculations Were Made
The entire world is treading on new territory here, and in the understatement of the century, miscalculations were made. The US seemed on a steady, heavily legislated trajectory toward a sovereign technological bubble, but faced fundamental rejection from its citizens, some of whom seem more willing to learn Chinese than download X, Threads, or Instagram.
The future trajectory for the technological sovereignty could fork in many directions. A majority of US citizens could lose interest in foreign apps in the next few years; or a bellwether event could trigger hostility toward non-US applications; and US technological sovereignty may be rolled out with no fanfare. This could become a hard-fought issue that US citizens continue to be passionate about and uncooperative with attempts to implement technological sovereignty. Non-US origin platforms may cave to pressure and simply decide operations within the US simply aren't worth the legislative headache. The US might implement heavy-handed policy and find itself engaging in an endless game of whack-a-mole between unregulated non-US origin apps, proxy servers, and uncooperative US consumers.
The future is uncertain. At present, the policy consensus from all parties seems to be to reset and figure out the new stakes, and it is hard to envision a "hard" implementation of US technological sovereignty in the near future. This is new territory, and no one involved anticipated this outcome. Whatever the case, one thing is certain - US and Chinese citizens really like sharing cat pictures with each other on the internet.6
1. Katie Paul, "Chinese App RedNote Gained Millions of US Users This Week as 'TikTok Refugees' Joined Ahead of Ban," Reuters, January 17, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinese-app-rednote-gained-millions-us-users-this-week-tiktok-refugees-joined-2025-01-16/.
2. TikTok Inc. v. Garland, 604 US (2025), https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24pdf/24-656_ca7d.pdf.
3. Donald J. Trump, Executive Order, "Application of Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act to TikTok," January 20, 2025, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/application-of-protecting-americans-from-foreign-adversary-controlled-applications-act-to-tiktok/.
4. Brenda Goh, "China Gives a Wary Welcome to Influx of 'TikTok Refugees' on RedNote," Reuters, January 16, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-gives-wary-welcome-influx-tiktok-refugees-rednote-2025-01-15/.
5. Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, H.R.7521, 118th Congress, March 13, 2024, https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7521.
6. TOI World Desk, "Luigi Mangione Takes Over RedNote: How Chinese App Became a Meme Haven for Americans Fleeing TikTok," The Times of India, January 18, 2025, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/luigi-mangione-takes-over-rednote-how-chinese-app-became-a-meme-haven-for-americans-fleeing-tiktok/articleshow/117353563.cms.
This article is from the January issue of TI Observer (TIO), which delves into the concept of "technological sovereignty," examining the political dynamics behind the TikTok sale-or-ban law, and exploring the delicate balance between national security, enterprise freedom, and global technological cooperation. If you are interested in knowing more about the January issue, please click here:
http://en.taiheinstitute.org/UpLoadFile/files/2025/1/26/1041397474f018444-a.pdf
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